Risk of Alzheimer’s Disease is Associated with Longitudinal Changes in Plasma Biomarkers in the Multiethnic Washington Heights, Inwood Columbia Aging Project Cohort

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) biomarkers can help differentiate cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. The role of AD biomarkers in predicting cognitive impairment and AD needs examination. METHODS: In 628 CU individuals from a multi-ethnic cohort, Aβ42, Aβ40, phosphorylated tau-181 (P-tau181), glial fibrillary acid protein (GFAP), and neurofilament light chain (NfL) were measured in plasma. RESULTS: Higher baseline levels of P-tau181/Aβ42 ratio were associated with increased risk of incident dementia. A biomarker pattern (with elevated Aβ42/Aβ40 but low P-tau181/Aβ42) was associated with decreased dementia risk. Compared to CU, participants who developed MCI or dementia had a rapid decrease in the biomarker pattern reflecting AD-specific pathological change. DISCUSSION: Elevated levels of AD biomarker P-tau181/Aβ42, by itself or combined with a low Aβ42/Aβ40 level, predicts clinically diagnosed AD. Individuals with a rapid change in these biomarkers may need close monitoring for the potential downward trajectory of cognition.