Does the Probability of Survival Calculated by the Trauma and Injury Severity Score Method Accurately Reflect the Severity of Neurotrauma Patients Admitted to Regional Trauma Centers in Korea?

BACKGROUND: Assessing and improving the quality of trauma care is crucial in modern trauma systems and centers. In Korea, evaluations of regional trauma centers are conducted annually to assess and improve trauma management quality. This includes using the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) method to calculate the W-score and mortality Observed-to-Expected ratio (O:E ratio), which are used to evaluate the quality of care. We analyzed the potential for overestimation of the probability of survival using TRISS method for patients with neurotrauma, as well as the potential for errors when evaluating and comparing regional trauma centers. METHODS: We included patients who visited the regional trauma center between 2019 and 2021 and compared their probability of survival of the TRISS method, W-score, mortality O:E ratio, and misclassification rates. The patient groups were further subdivided into smaller subgroups based on age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and Injury Severity Score, and comparisons were made between the neurotrauma and non-neurotrauma groups within each subgroup. RESULTS: A total of 4,045 patients were enrolled in the study, with 1,639 of them having neurotrauma. The neurotrauma patient group had a W-score of −0.68 and a mortality O:E ratio of 1.044. The misclassification rate was found to be 13.3%, and patients with a GCS of 8 or less had a higher misclassification rate of 37.4%. CONCLUSION: The limitations of using the TRISS method for predicting outcomes in patients with severe neurotrauma are exposed in this study. The TRISS methodology demonstrated a high misclassification rate of approximately 40% in subgroups of patients with GCS less than 9, indicating that it may be less reliable in predicting outcomes for severely injured patients with low GCS. Clinicians and researchers should be cautious when using the TRISS method and consider alternative methods to evaluate patient outcomes and compare the quality of care provided by different trauma centers.