Association of prior outpatient diabetes screening with cardiovascular events and mortality among people with incident diabetes: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Outcomes of diabetes screening in contemporary, multi-ethnic populations are unknown. We examined the association of prior outpatient diabetes screening with the risks of cardiovascular events and mortality in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using administrative databases among adults aged ≥ 20 years with incident diabetes diagnosed during 2014–2016. The exposure was outpatient diabetes screening performed within 3 years prior to diabetes diagnosis. The co-primary outcomes were (1) a composite of all-cause mortality and hospitalization for myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, and (2) all-cause mortality (followed up until 2018). We calculated standardized rates of each outcome and conducted cause-specific hazard modelling to determine the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of the outcomes, adjusting for prespecified confounders and accounting for the competing risk of death. RESULTS: We included 178,753 Ontarians with incident diabetes (70.2% previously screened). Individuals receiving prior screening were older (58.3 versus 53.4 years) and more likely to be women (49.6% versus 40.0%) than previously unscreened individuals. Individuals receiving prior screening had relatively lower standardized event rates than those without prior screening across all outcomes (composite: 12.8 versus 18.1, mortality: 8.2 versus 11.1 per 1000 patient-years). After multivariable adjustment, prior screening was associated with 34% and 32% lower risks of the composite (HR 0.66, 0.63–0.69) and mortality (0.68, 0.64–0.72) outcomes. Among those receiving prior screening, a result in the prediabetes range was associated with lower risks of the composite (0.82, 0.77–0.88) and mortality (0.71, 0.66–0.78) outcomes than a result in the normoglycemic range. CONCLUSIONS: Previously screened individuals with diabetes had lower risks of cardiovascular events and mortality versus previously unscreened individuals. Better risk assessment tools are needed to support wider and more appropriate uptake of diabetes screening, especially among young adults. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-023-01952-y.