Empty stomach together with menstrual bleeding as predictors of committed suicides among women of reproductive age: What a primary physician must know

BACKGROUND: Women of reproductive age group (WoRAG) are among the most vulnerable groups to suicide in India. The present study intended to develop a mathematical model to differentiate suicides from homicides among WoRAG. METHODS: It was a cross-sectional study based on a record review of autopsy at Patna, India, from 2016 to 2021. The cause of deaths was ascertained by autopsies and other records independently by two investigators to reduce the interobserver bias. Independent variables were tested with confirmed suicides to calculate statistically significant association. These variables were further used for developing prediction models for the suicides by multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Out of total of 520 autopsies of WoRAG performed by investigators, the cause of death has been confirmed for 62. Of them, 30 were confirmed as suicides. In univariate analysis, suicides were associated with the menstrual bleed (OR 35 CI 6.9,179), gastric emptying (OR 3.9 CI 1.2,12.8), hanging, poisoning, and drowning as mode of death (OR 435 CI 37.4,5061.9). By logistic regression, three prediction models were built to predict suicide; Model I: gastric emptying, Model II: menstrual bleed, and Model III: including both. The area under the curve (AUC) for Models I, II, and III was 0.67 (95%CI 0.34,0.99), 0.92 (95%CI 0.75,1.00), and 0.94 (95%CI 0.82,1.00), respectively. The AUC of Model III differs significantly from that of Model I (P value 0.03) but not with Model II (P value 0.11). CONCLUSION: Menstrual bleed, gastric emptying, and mode of death may be used as a supplement tool in ascertaining the cause of death among WoRAG in medical and legal proceedings.