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Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it

After the widespread prevalence of COVID-19 at the end of 2022 in Mainland China, a major concern is when will the second major outbreak occur and with what prevalence and fatality rates will it be associated with, as peoples' immunity from natural infection subsides. To address this, we establ...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wu, Yuanyuan, Zhou, Weike, Tang, Sanyi, Cheke, Robert A., Wang, Xia
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10465198/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37650063
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230655
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author Wu, Yuanyuan
Zhou, Weike
Tang, Sanyi
Cheke, Robert A.
Wang, Xia
author_facet Wu, Yuanyuan
Zhou, Weike
Tang, Sanyi
Cheke, Robert A.
Wang, Xia
author_sort Wu, Yuanyuan
collection PubMed
description After the widespread prevalence of COVID-19 at the end of 2022 in Mainland China, a major concern is when will the second major outbreak occur and with what prevalence and fatality rates will it be associated with, as peoples' immunity from natural infection subsides. To address this, we established an age-structured model considering vaccine and infection-derived immunity, fitted an immunity-waning curve, and calibrated the model using the epidemic and vaccination data from Hong Kong in 2022. The model and the situation of the first major epidemic in Mainland China were then used to predict the prevalence rate, fatality rate and peak time of the second wave. In addition, the controlling effects of different vaccination strategies on the second major outbreak are discussed. Finally, a characterization indicator for the level of population immunity was provided. We conclude that if the prevalence of the first major epidemic was 80%, the prevalence rate of the second major outbreak would be about 37.64%, and the peak time would have been July 2 2023. Strengthening vaccination can effectively delay the peak of the second wave of the epidemic and reduce the prevalence.
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spelling pubmed-104651982023-08-30 Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it Wu, Yuanyuan Zhou, Weike Tang, Sanyi Cheke, Robert A. Wang, Xia R Soc Open Sci Mathematics After the widespread prevalence of COVID-19 at the end of 2022 in Mainland China, a major concern is when will the second major outbreak occur and with what prevalence and fatality rates will it be associated with, as peoples' immunity from natural infection subsides. To address this, we established an age-structured model considering vaccine and infection-derived immunity, fitted an immunity-waning curve, and calibrated the model using the epidemic and vaccination data from Hong Kong in 2022. The model and the situation of the first major epidemic in Mainland China were then used to predict the prevalence rate, fatality rate and peak time of the second wave. In addition, the controlling effects of different vaccination strategies on the second major outbreak are discussed. Finally, a characterization indicator for the level of population immunity was provided. We conclude that if the prevalence of the first major epidemic was 80%, the prevalence rate of the second major outbreak would be about 37.64%, and the peak time would have been July 2 2023. Strengthening vaccination can effectively delay the peak of the second wave of the epidemic and reduce the prevalence. The Royal Society 2023-08-30 /pmc/articles/PMC10465198/ /pubmed/37650063 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230655 Text en © 2023 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Mathematics
Wu, Yuanyuan
Zhou, Weike
Tang, Sanyi
Cheke, Robert A.
Wang, Xia
Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it
title Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it
title_full Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it
title_fullStr Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it
title_short Prediction of the next major outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China and a vaccination strategy for it
title_sort prediction of the next major outbreak of covid-19 in mainland china and a vaccination strategy for it
topic Mathematics
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10465198/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37650063
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230655
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