SEER-based risk stratification system for patients with primary non-cirrhotic liver cancer

BACKGROUND: Little research has been done on the factors affecting the survival of patients with non-cirrhotic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC-NCL). Our aim was to develop and validate a nomogram and a new risk stratification system that can evaluate overall survival (OS) in HCC-NCL patients. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2019 to study HCC-NCL patients. The patients were randomly split into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio and subjected to single-factor and multi-factor COX regression analysis. We then developed a nomogram and evaluated its accuracy and clinical validity using time-dependent ROC, DCA, and calibration curves. We compared the nomogram with the AJCC staging system by calculating C-index, NRI, and IDI. Finally, we used Kaplan–Meier curves to compare the nomogram and AJCC staging. These analyses were performed without altering the original intended meaning. RESULTS: AFP levels, surgical intervention, T-stage, tumor size, and M-stage were independent prognostic indicators for overall survival among the HCC-NCL population studied. We developed a nomogram based on these factors, and time-dependent ROC, calibration curves, DCA analyses, and C-index proved its accuracy. Compared to the AJCC staging system, the nomogram showed better prognostic accuracy through time-dependent ROC, DCA analyses, C-index, NRI, IDI, and Kaplan–Meier curves. CONCLUSION: We have developed and validated a survival nomogram applicable to HCC-NCL patients, with risk stratification. Our nomogram offers personalized treatment and management options superior to those provided by the AJCC staging system. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-023-05057-7.