A machine learning-based model for predicting distant metastasis in patients with rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: Distant metastasis from rectal cancer usually results in poorer survival and quality of life, so early identification of patients at high risk of distant metastasis from rectal cancer is essential. METHOD: The study used eight machine-learning algorithms to construct a machine-learning model for the risk of distant metastasis from rectal cancer. We developed the models using 23867 patients with rectal cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Meanwhile, 1178 rectal cancer patients from Chinese hospitals were selected to validate the model performance and extrapolation. We tuned the hyperparameters by random search and tenfold cross-validation to construct the machine-learning models. We evaluated the models using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), decision curve analysis, calibration curves, and the precision and accuracy of the internal test set and external validation cohorts. In addition, Shapley’s Additive explanations (SHAP) were used to interpret the machine-learning models. Finally, the best model was applied to develop a web calculator for predicting the risk of distant metastasis in rectal cancer. RESULT: The study included 23,867 rectal cancer patients and 2,840 patients with distant metastasis. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that age, differentiation grade, T-stage, N-stage, preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), tumor deposits, perineural invasion, tumor size, radiation, and chemotherapy were-independent risk factors for distant metastasis in rectal cancer. The mean AUC value of the extreme gradient boosting (XGB) model in ten-fold cross-validation in the training set was 0.859. The XGB model performed best in the internal test set and external validation set. The XGB model in the internal test set had an AUC was 0.855, AUPRC was 0.510, accuracy was 0.900, and precision was 0.880. The metric AUC for the external validation set of the XGB model was 0.814, AUPRC was 0.609, accuracy was 0.800, and precision was 0.810. Finally, we constructed a web calculator using the XGB model for distant metastasis of rectal cancer. CONCLUSION: The study developed and validated an XGB model based on clinicopathological information for predicting the risk of distant metastasis in patients with rectal cancer, which may help physicians make clinical decisions. rectal cancer, distant metastasis, web calculator, machine learning algorithm, external validation