Interpretable machine-learning model for Predicting the Convalescent COVID-19 patients with pulmonary diffusing capacity impairment

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 patients in the convalescent stage noticeably have pulmonary diffusing capacity impairment (PDCI). The pulmonary diffusing capacity is a frequently-used indicator of the COVID-19 survivors’ prognosis of pulmonary function, but the current studies focusing on prediction of the pulmonary diffusing capacity of these people are limited. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting PDCI in the COVID-19 patients using routinely available clinical data, thus assisting the clinical diagnosis. METHODS: Collected from a follow-up study from August to September 2021 of 221 hospitalized survivors of COVID-19 18 months after discharge from Wuhan, including the demographic characteristics and clinical examination, the data in this study were randomly separated into a training (80%) data set and a validation (20%) data set. Six popular machine learning models were developed to predict the pulmonary diffusing capacity of patients infected with COVID-19 in the recovery stage. The performance indicators of the model included area under the curve (AUC), Accuracy, Recall, Precision, Positive Predictive Value(PPV), Negative Predictive Value (NPV) and F1. The model with the optimum performance was defined as the optimal model, which was further employed in the interpretability analysis. The MAHAKIL method was utilized to balance the data and optimize the balance of sample distribution, while the RFECV method for feature selection was utilized to select combined features more favorable to machine learning. RESULTS: A total of 221 COVID-19 survivors were recruited in this study after discharge from hospitals in Wuhan. Of these participants, 117 (52.94%) were female, with a median age of 58.2 years (standard deviation (SD) = 12). After feature selection, 31 of the 37 clinical factors were finally selected for use in constructing the model. Among the six tested ML models, the best performance was accomplished in the XGBoost model, with an AUC of 0.755 and an accuracy of 78.01% after experimental verification. The SHAPELY Additive explanations (SHAP) summary analysis exhibited that hemoglobin (Hb), maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV), severity of illness, platelet (PLT), Uric Acid (UA) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were the top six most important factors affecting the XGBoost model decision-making. CONCLUSION: The XGBoost model reported here showed a good prognostic prediction ability for PDCI of COVID-19 survivors during the recovery period. Among the interpretation methods based on the importance of SHAP values, Hb and MVV contributed the most to the prediction of PDCI outcomes of COVID-19 survivors in the recovery period. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-023-02192-6.