Baseline serum tumor markers predict the survival of patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer receiving first-line immunotherapy: a multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the association between baseline serum tumor markers (STMs) (carcinoembryonic antigen [CEA], neuron-specific enolase [NSE], cytokeratin-19 fragment [CYFRA21-1], carbohydrate antigen 19–9 [CA19-9], and carbohydrate antigen 125 [CA125]) and the efficacy of first-line immunotherapy in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective study evaluated patients who received first-line immunotherapy between July 2017 and July 2022. The endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS), as defined by the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors version 1.1. We divided the patients into three groups based on STM levels: Group A ≥ threefold upper limit of normal, threefold upper limit of normal > Group B > upper limit of normal, and Group C ≤ upper limit of normal. RESULTS: In total, 716 patients were included in this study. In Cox proportional hazards analyses, the STM levels in Group C were independently associated with superior PFS and OS in patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD). Except for CA19-9 level, the STM levels in Group C were independently associated with superior PFS and OS in patients with lung squamous carcinoma (LUSC). Except for CEA and CA19-9 levels, the levels in Group A were independently associated with inferior PFS and OS in patients with LUAD and LUSC. CONCLUSIONS: Serum CEA, NSE, CYFRA21-1, and CA125 levels can predict PFS and OS in patients with LUAD and LUSC, and serum CA19-9 levels can predict PFS and OS in patients with LUAD. The higher the serum NSE, CYFRA21-1, and CA125 levels, the worse the PFS and OS in patients with LUAD and LUSC. In addition, the higher the serum CA19-9 level, the worse the OS in patients with LUAD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11312-4.