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Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study

BACKGROUND: Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer inci...

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Autores principales: Ye, Enlin, Huang, Jiasheng, Wang, Jia, Zhao, Yumei, Niu, Dongdong, Liu, Jie, Huang, Xueying, Yue, Suru, Hou, Xuefei, Wu, Jiayuan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10469639/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37306154
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cam4.6239
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author Ye, Enlin
Huang, Jiasheng
Wang, Jia
Zhao, Yumei
Niu, Dongdong
Liu, Jie
Huang, Xueying
Yue, Suru
Hou, Xuefei
Wu, Jiayuan
author_facet Ye, Enlin
Huang, Jiasheng
Wang, Jia
Zhao, Yumei
Niu, Dongdong
Liu, Jie
Huang, Xueying
Yue, Suru
Hou, Xuefei
Wu, Jiayuan
author_sort Ye, Enlin
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear. METHODS: The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age–period–cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age‐standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI −0.1 to 0) in females. The age‐standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI −1.1 to −0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI −2.8 to −1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age‐standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age‐standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females. CONCLUSION: The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age‐standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively.
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spelling pubmed-104696392023-09-01 Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study Ye, Enlin Huang, Jiasheng Wang, Jia Zhao, Yumei Niu, Dongdong Liu, Jie Huang, Xueying Yue, Suru Hou, Xuefei Wu, Jiayuan Cancer Med RESEARCH ARTICLES BACKGROUND: Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear. METHODS: The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age–period–cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age‐standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI −0.1 to 0) in females. The age‐standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI −1.1 to −0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI −2.8 to −1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age‐standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age‐standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females. CONCLUSION: The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age‐standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2023-06-12 /pmc/articles/PMC10469639/ /pubmed/37306154 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cam4.6239 Text en © 2023 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle RESEARCH ARTICLES
Ye, Enlin
Huang, Jiasheng
Wang, Jia
Zhao, Yumei
Niu, Dongdong
Liu, Jie
Huang, Xueying
Yue, Suru
Hou, Xuefei
Wu, Jiayuan
Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study
title Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study
title_full Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study
title_fullStr Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study
title_full_unstemmed Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study
title_short Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study
title_sort trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in china from 1990 to 2044: a bayesian age–period–cohort modeling study
topic RESEARCH ARTICLES
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10469639/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37306154
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cam4.6239
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