Development and validation of a novel nomogram to predict the risk of the prolonged postoperative length of stay for lumbar spinal stenosis patients

BACKGROUND: Lumber spinal stenosis (LSS) is the increasingly reason for spine surgery for elder patients since China is facing the fastest-growing aging population. The aim of this research was to create a model to predict the probabilities of requiring a prolonged postoperative length of stay (PLOS) for lumbar spinal stenosis patients, minimizing the healthcare burden. METHODS: A total of 540 LSS patients were enrolled in this project. The outcome was a prolonged PLOS after spine surgery, defined as hospitalizations ≥ 75th percentile for PLOS, including the day of discharge. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to identify independent risk variables related to prolonged PLOS. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was utilized to generate a prediction model utilizing the variables employed in the LASSO approach. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve’s area under the curve (AUC) and the calibration curve’s respective curves were used to further validate the model’s calibration with predictability and discriminative capabilities. By using decision curve analysis, the resulting model’s clinical effectiveness was assessed. RESULTS: Among 540 individuals, 344 had PLOS that was within the usual range of P75 (8 days), according to the interquartile range of PLOS, and 196 had PLOS that was above the normal range of P75 (prolonged PLOS). Four variables were incorporated into the predictive model, named: transfusion, operation duration, blood loss and involved spine segments. A great difference in clinical scores can be found between the two groups (P < 0.001). In the development set, the model’s AUC for predicting prolonged PLOS was 0.812 (95% CI: 0.768–0.859), while in the validation set, it was 0.830 (95% CI: 0.753–0.881). The calibration plots for the probability showed coherence between the expected probability and the actual probability both in the development set and validation set respectively. When intervention was chosen at the potential threshold of 2%, analysis of the decision curve revealed that the model was more clinically effective. CONCLUSIONS: The individualized prediction nomogram incorporating five common clinical features for LSS patients undergoing surgery can be suitably used to smooth early identification and improve screening of patients at higher risk of prolonged PLOS and minimize health care.