开发和验证一种预后的列线图来指导肺大细胞神经内分泌癌的决策

Background and objective Lung large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNEC) is a rare and highly malignant lung tumor with a poor prognosis. Currently, most research on LCNEC is based on retrospective studies and lacks validation in the real world. The study aims to identify independent risk factors and establish and validate a predictive model for the prognosis of LCNEC. Methods Patient data were extracted from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and our department's hospitalization records from 2010 to 2015 and 2016 to 2020, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to evaluate overall survival (OS). OS is defined as the time from diagnosis to death or last follow-up for a patient. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify significant prognostic factors and construct a Nomogram for predicting the prognosis of LCNEC. Results In total, 1892 LCNEC patients were included and divided into a training cohort (n=1288) and two validation cohorts (n=552, n=52). Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, gender, primary tumor site, laterality, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, and radiotherapy were factors that could affect the prognosis of LCNEC patients (P<0.05). Multivariate Cox analysis indicated that age, gender, primary tumor site, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, and radiotherapy were independent risk factors for the prognosis of LCNEC patients (P<0.05). Calibration curves and the concordance index (internal: 0.744±0.015; external: 0.763±0.020, 0.832±0.055) demonstrated good predictive performance of the model. Conclusion Patients aged ≥65 years, male, with advanced tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging, and who have not undergone surgery or radiotherapy have a poor prognosis. Nomogram can provide a certain reference for personalized clinical decision-making for patients.