Cost-effectiveness analysis of pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy compared with chemotherapy alone as first-line treatment for patients with advanced biliary tract cancer in China

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding pembrolizumab to the standard first-line therapy of advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) with gemcitabine and cisplatin from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system. METHODS: The partitioned survival model developed from clinical data obtained in The KEYNOTE-966 trial served as the basis for a simulation in the TreeAge Pro 2011 software. The objective of the research was to estimate the 10-year life expectancy and total healthcare costs of patients with BTC, utilizing primary outcomes that evaluated costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). To establish the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold, the 2022 Chinese per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of $37304.346/QALY was adopted. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was conducted to ascertain the study’s results under varying levels of uncertainty. RESULTS: Compared to chemotherapy alone, the addition of pembrolizumab to chemotherapy has been shown to yield an incremental gain of 0.184 quality-adjusted life years (QALY) at an additional cost of $103940.706. This translates into an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $564895.141/QALY, which exceeds the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold in China. One-way sensitivity analyses performed on the model recognize the utility of PD, subsequent cost, and the cost of Pembrolizumab 100 mg had a major influence on the outcomes. However, no parameter elicited an ICER lower than the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system, the utilization of pembrolizumab in combination with chemotherapy as an first-line treatment option for BTC does not appear to be a cost-effective approach compared to chemotherapy as a standalone therapy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11255-w.