A nomogram based on biparametric magnetic resonance imaging for detection of clinically significant prostate cancer in biopsy-naïve patients

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop and validate a model based on biparametric magnetic resonance imaging (bpMRI) for the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) in biopsy-naïve patients. METHOD: This retrospective study included 324 patients who underwent bpMRI and MRI targeted fusion biopsy (MRGB) and/or systematic biopsy, of them 217 were randomly assigned to the training group and 107 were assigned to the validation group. We assessed the diagnostic performance of three bpMRI-based scorings in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Subsequently, 3 models (Model 1, Model 2, and Model 3) combining bpMRI scorings with clinical variables were constructed and compared with each other using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC). The statistical significance of differences among these models was evaluated using DeLong’s test. RESULTS: In the training group, 68 of 217 patients had pathologically proven csPCa. The sensitivity and specificity for Scoring 1 were 64.7% (95% CI 52.2%-75.9%) and 80.5% (95% CI 73.3%-86.6%); for Scoring 2 were 86.8% (95% CI 76.4%-93.8%) and 73.2% (95% CI 65.3%-80.1%); and for Scoring 3 were 61.8% (95% CI 49.2%-73.3%) and 80.5% (95% CI 73.3%-86.6%), respectively. Multivariable regression analysis revealed that scorings based on bpMRI, age, and prostate-specific antigen density (PSAD) were independent predictors of csPCa. The AUCs for the 3 models were 0.88 (95% CI 0.83–0.93), 0.90 (95% CI 0.85–0.94), and 0.88 (95% CI 0.83–0.93), respectively. Model 2 showed significantly higher performance than Model 1 (P = 0.03) and Model 3 (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: All three scorings had favorite diagnostic accuracy. While in conjunction with age and PSAD the prediction power was significantly improved, and the Model 2 that based on Scoring 2 yielded the highest performance. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-023-00606-2.