The Geriatric Prognostic Index: a clinical prediction model for survival of older diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients treated with standard immunochemotherapy

The International prognostic Index (IPI) is the most widely used clinical prediction model for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisone (R-CHOP), but may be suboptimal in older patients. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical prediction model for older, R-CHOP-treated DLBCL patients by examining geriatric assessment and lymphoma-related parameters in real-world cohorts. A population-based training set of 365 R-CHOP-treated DLBCL patients ≥70 years was identified through the Cancer Registry of Norway. The external test set consisted of a population-based cohort of 193 patients. Data on candidate predictors were retrieved from the Cancer Registry and through review of clinical records. Cox regression models for 2-year overall survival were used for model selection. Activities of daily living, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, age, sex, albumin, stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and lactate dehydrogenase level were identified as independent predictors and combined into a Geriatric Prognostic Index (GPI). The GPI demonstrated good discrimination (optimism-corrected C-index 0.752), and identified low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups with significantly different survivals (2-year overall survival, 94%, 65%, and 25%, respectively). At external validation, the continuous and grouped GPI demonstrated good discrimination (C-index 0.727 and 0.710, respectively) and the GPI groups had significantly different survivals (2-year overall survival 95%, 65%, and 44%, respectively). Both the continuous and grouped GPI showed better discrimination than the IPI, revised-IPI and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)-IPI (C-index 0.621, 0.583, and 0.670, respectively). In conclusion, we have developed and externally validated a GPI for older DLBCL patients treated with R-CHOP that outperformed the IPI, revised-IPI and NCCN-IPI. A web-based calculator is available at https://wide.shinyapps.io/GPIcalculator/.