Impact of estrogen receptor expression level on response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and prognosis in HER2-negative breast cancers

BACKGROUND: Breast cancers with 1–10% cell staining for estrogen receptor (ER) present particular clinical features. The clinical data of estrogen receptor expression level and treatment effect are limited, particularly regarding chemotherapy benefit. We evaluated the pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in ER low positive tumors (ER staining 1-10%) and compared it with ER > 10% positive tumors (ER staining > 10%) and ER-negative tumors. We further explored the differences in recurrence and survival with respect to the ER expression level. METHOD: Patients with stages II and III HER2-negative primary breast cancer who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by definitive surgery were categorized according to their ER percentages into three groups: ER-negative, ER low positive, and ER > 10% positive. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between each variable and pathologic complete response (pCR). Kaplan‒Meier analysis was used to estimate survival outcomes. Cox models were used to adjust for patient and tumor characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 241 patients were analyzed. Of all patients included, 22 (9.1%) had ER low positive tumors, 159 (66.0%) had ER > 10% positive tumors, and 60 (24.9%) were ER-negative. Low ER positivity was significantly associated with a higher pCR rate than ER > 10% positivity (OR, 0.249; 95% CI, 0.067–0.923; P = 0.038). After a median follow-up time of 32 months, the disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of the patients with ER low positive tumors were significantly worse than those of the patients with ER > 10% positive tumors but similar to those with ER-negative tumors. After adjustment for covariates, ER low positive tumors were significantly associated with worse DFS than ER > 10% positive tumors. CONCLUSION: Our results indicated that ER low positive breast cancer presents a better response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and significantly worse prognosis for patients than those with ER > 10% positive tumors, but similar to the ER-negative group. These data support that this category of patients behaves clinically like patients with ER-negative breast cancer and should be treated differently from patients with ER > 10% positive tumors. Further prospective study is needed. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-11368-2.