Investigating the relationship between sleep and migraine in a global sample: a Bayesian cross-sectional approach

BACKGROUND: There is a bidirectional link between sleep and migraine, however causality is difficult to determine. This study aimed to investigate this relationship using data collected from a smartphone application. METHODS: Self-reported data from 11,166 global users (aged 18–81 years, mean: 41.21, standard deviation: 11.49) were collected from the Migraine Buddy application (Healint Pte. Ltd.). Measures included: start and end times of sleep and migraine attacks, and pain intensity. Bayesian regression models were used to predict occurrence of a migraine attack the next day based on users’ deviations from average sleep, number of sleep interruptions, and hours slept the night before in those reporting ≥ 8 and < 25 migraine attacks on average per month. Conversely, we modelled whether attack occurrence and pain intensity predicted hours slept that night. RESULTS: There were 724 users (129 males, 412 females, 183 unknown, mean age = 41.88 years, SD = 11.63), with a mean monthly attack frequency of 9.94. More sleep interruptions (95% Highest Density Interval (95%HDI [0.11 – 0.21]) and deviation from a user’s mean sleep (95%HDI [0.04 – 0.08]) were significant predictors of a next day attack. Total hours slept was not a significant predictor (95%HDI [-0.04 – 0.04]). Pain intensity, but not attack occurrence was a positive predictor of hours slept. CONCLUSIONS: Sleep fragmentation and deviation from typical sleep are the main drivers of the relationship between sleep and migraine. Having a migraine attack does not predict sleep duration, yet the pain associated with it does. This study highlights sleep as crucial in migraine management. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s10194-023-01638-6.