Himalayan Marmot (Marmota himalayana) Redistribution to High Latitudes under Climate Change

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The Himalayan marmot is a host animal for plague-causing pathogens and is endemic to the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). With human activities and global warming, the Himalayan marmot population has increased rapidly, causing damage to grassland ecosystems and increasing the risk of plague infection in humans. The current and future potential distribution of the Himalayan marmot has significant implications for ecosystem management, biodiversity conservation, and public health safety on the QTP. The maximum entropy model was employed to analyze the Himalayan marmot potential distribution in the near and later future (2050s and 2070s) in this study. Under future climate scenarios, the uninterrupted rise in precipitation and temperature over the QTP predicted that the suitable area for the Himalayan marmot will increase, with the centroid shifting to higher latitudes. Our results indicate that climatic factors are of great significance for the distribution of the Himalayan marmot and provide a reference for ecosystem management and the monitoring of plague epidemics in the QTP. ABSTRACT: Climate warming and human activities impact the expansion and contraction of species distribution. The Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) is a unique mammal and an ecosystem engineer in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). This pest aggravates grassland degradation and is a carrier and transmitter of plagues. Therefore, exploring the future distribution of Himalayan marmots based on climate change and human activities is crucial for ecosystem management, biodiversity conservation, and public health safety. Here, a maximum entropy model was explored to forecast changes in the distribution and centroid migration of the Himalayan marmot in the 2050s and 2070s. The results implied that the human footprint index (72.80%) and altitude (16.40%) were the crucial environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of Himalayan marmots, with moderately covered grassland being the preferred habitat of the Himalayan marmot. Over the next 30–50 years, the area of suitable habitat for the Himalayan marmot will increase slightly and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitudes in the northeastern part of the plateau. These results demonstrate the influence of climate change on Himalayan marmots and provide a theoretical reference for ecological management and plague monitoring.