Modeling the Wintering Habitat Distribution of the Black Stork in Shaanxi, China: A Hierarchical Integration of Climate and Land Use/Land Cover Data

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Climate and land use/land cover changes are key factors that significantly impact the distribution of wild species. The black stork, an endangered bird with a high conservation status in China, is particularly vulnerable to these changes due to its long-distance migration. Previous studies have mainly focused on the effect of climate change on the black stork’s breeding season. However, little attention has been given to how its wintering habitats are affected by these factors at different scales. In our study, we evaluated the dynamics of the black stork’s wintering habitat distribution in response to global and regional changes. Our findings indicate that both climate and land use/land cover changes significantly impact the distribution of the wintering black stork. However, the impact of human activities is more pronounced. In order to mitigate the negative effects of human-induced land use/land cover changes on the black stork and other migratory birds, it is crucial to reduce the destruction of wildlife habitats caused by human activities. Additionally, we need to focus on effectively protecting the migratory pathways and wintering sites of these birds, including those that are outside the existing protected areas. ABSTRACT: Species distribution models (SDMs) are effective tools for wildlife conservation and management, as they employ the quantification of habitat suitability and environmental niches to evaluate the patterns of species distribution. The utilization of SDMs at various scales in a hierarchical approach can provide additional and complementary information, significantly improving decision-making in local wildlife conservation initiatives. In this study, we considered the appropriate spatial scale and data resolution to execute species distribution modeling, as these factors greatly influence the modeling procedures. We developed SDMs for wintering black storks at both the regional and local scales. At the regional scale, we used climatic and climate-driven land use/land cover (LULC) variables, along with wintering occurrence points, to develop models for mainland China. At the local scale, we used local environmental variables and locally gathered wintering site data to develop models for Shaanxi province. The predictions from both the regional and local models were then combined at the provincial level by overlapping suitable areas based on climatic and local conditions. We compared and evaluated the resulting predictions using seven statistical metrics. The national models provide information on the appropriate climatic conditions for the black stork during the wintering period throughout China, while the provincial SDMs capture the important local ecological factors that influence the suitability of habitats at a finer scale. As anticipated, the national SDMs predict a larger extent of suitable areas compared to the provincial SDMs. The hierarchical prediction approach is considered trustworthy and, on average, yields better outcomes than non-hierarchical methods. Our findings indicate that human-driven LULC changes have a significant and immediate impact on the wintering habitat of the black stork. However, the effects of climate change seem to be reducing the severity of this impact. The majority of suitable wintering habitats lie outside the boundaries of protected areas, highlighting the need for future conservation and management efforts to prioritize addressing these conservation gaps and focusing on the protection of climate refuges.