Topographic and climatic controls of peatland distribution on the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) hosts a variety of mountain peatlands that are sensitive to the amplified warming in this region. However, we still lack a basic understanding of environmental and climatic factors controlling peatland distribution in the region. Here we use a bioclimatic envelope model (PeatStash) and environmental analysis that utilise three peatland datasets—(a) the well-studied Zoige peatland complex, (b) a literature-based dataset of TP peatlands sites, and (c) an existing global peatland map (PEATMAP)—to investigate major drivers of peatland distribution in the TP. The Zoige peatland complex is defined by gentle slopes (< 2°), mean annual temperature at 0–2 °C, and soil moisture index > 1.7, much narrower thresholds than those stemming from PEATMAP. Using these narrower thresholds to predict future changes, we found that the Zoige peatland complex will shrink greatly under full-range future warming scenarios (both SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5). Modelling peatland distribution in the entire TP remains challenging because accurate environmental and climate data at high resolution and a reliable peatland distribution map are still lacking. Improved peatland mapping supported by ground-truthing is necessary to understand drivers of peatland distribution, assess carbon storage and other ecosystem services, and predict the TP’s peatlands fate under climate change.