Long-term outcomes in a retrospective cohort of patients with rectal cancer with complete response after total neoadjuvant therapy: a propensity-score weighted analysis

BACKGROUND: The watch-and-wait (W&W) strategy is a novel treatment option for patients with rectal cancer who have a strong desire for organ preservation. The study aimed to explore the long-term outcomes of the W&W strategy in a large cohort of rectal cancer patients who achieved a clinical complete response (cCR) after consolidation total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT), and to compare with patients who achieved a pathological complete response (pCR) after radical surgery. METHODS: The W&W group comprised patients who were assessed as having a cCR after consolidation TNT and adopted the W&W strategy. Patients who underwent standard resection and achieved a pCR were compared as a reference. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW)-adjusted Kaplan–Meier analysis with log-rank test was used to compare survival outcomes. RESULTS: We included 89 and 171 patients in the W&W and pCR groups, respectively. The median follow-up period was 45 and 58 months for the W&W and pCR groups, respectively. After IPTW adjustment, the 2-year local regrowth/recurrence rate for the W&W and pCR groups were 9.9% and 2.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). The W&W and pCR groups had similar 5-year outcomes, including overall survival, disease-free survival, and distant metastasis-free survival (all p > 0.05). No significant difference was observed in the rates of distant metastasis between patients in the W&W group with local regrowth and those without local regrowth (25% versus 6.2%, p = 0.119). CONCLUSION: Patients who were managed with a W&W strategy after consolidation TNT had favorable survival outcomes, which were similar to those of patients with a pCR. The rate of local regrowth in W&W patients was lower in our study than in other studies as a result of the implementation of consolidation TNT.