Investigation of contemporary college students’ mental health status and construction of a risk prediction model

BACKGROUND: Due to academic pressure, social relations, and the change of adapting to independent life, college students are under high levels of pressure. Therefore, it is very important to study the mental health problems of college students. Developing a predictive model that can detect early warning signals of college students’ mental health risks can help support early intervention and improve overall well-being. AIM: To investigate college students’ present psychological well-being, identify the contributing factors to its decline, and construct a predictive nomogram model. METHODS: We analyzed the psychological health status of 40874 university students in selected universities in Hubei Province, China from March 1 to 15, 2022, using online questionnaires and random sampling. Factors influencing their mental health were also analyzed using the logistic regression approach, and R4.2.3 software was employed to develop a nomogram model for risk prediction. RESULTS: We randomly selected 918 valid data and found that 11.3% of college students had psychological problems. The results of the general data survey showed that the mental health problems of doctoral students were more prominent than those of junior college students, and the mental health of students from rural areas was more likely to be abnormal than that of urban students. In addition, students who had experienced significant life events and divorced parents were more likely to have an abnormal status. The abnormal group exhibited significantly higher Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 scores than the healthy group, with these differences being statistically significant (P < 0.05). The nomogram prediction model drawn by multivariate analysis included six predictors: The place of origin, whether they were single children, whether there were significant life events, parents’ marital status, regular exercise, intimate friends, and the PHQ-9 score. The training set demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.972 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.947-0.997], a specificity of 0.888 and a sensitivity of 0.972. Similarly, the validation set had a ROC AUC of 0.979 (95%CI: 0.955-1.000), with a specificity of 0.942 and a sensitivity of 0.939. The H-L deviation test result was χ(2) = 32.476, P = 0.000007, suggesting that the model calibration was good. CONCLUSION: In this study, nearly 11.3% of contemporary college students had psychological problems, the risk factors include students from rural areas, divorced parents, non-single children, infrequent exercise, and significant life events.