Retrospective study: risk assessment model for osteoporosis—a detailed exploration involving 4,552 Shanghai dwellers

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis, a prevalent orthopedic issue, significantly influences patients’ quality of life and results in considerable financial burden. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for osteoporosis risk, utilizing computer algorithms and demographic data. METHOD: In this research, a total of 4,552 residents from Shanghai were retrospectively included. LASSO regression analysis was executed on the sample’s basic characteristics, and logistic regression was employed for analyzing clinical characteristics and building a predictive model. The model’s diagnostic capacity for predicting osteoporosis risk was assessed using R software and computer algorithms. RESULTS: The predictive nomogram model for bone loss risk, derived from the LASSO analysis, comprised factors including BMI, TC, TG, HDL, Gender, Age, Education, Income, Sleep, Alcohol Consumption, and Diabetes. The nomogram prediction model demonstrated impressive discriminative capability, with a C-index of 0.908 (training set), 0.908 (validation set), and 0.910 (entire cohort). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model was 0.909 (training set), 0.903 (validation set), and applicable to the entire cohort. The decision curve analysis further corroborated that the model could efficiently predict the risk of bone loss in patients. CONCLUSION: The nomogram, based on essential demographic and health factors (Body Mass Index, Total Cholesterol, Triglycerides, High-Density Lipoprotein, Gender, Age, Education, Income, Sleep, Alcohol Consumption, and Diabetes), offered accurate predictions for the risk of bone loss within the studied population.