A population-based projection of psoriatic arthritis in Germany until 2050: analysis of national statutory health insurance data of 65 million German population

The population-based prevalence of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is still unclear and not well described globally. The aim of this study was to conduct a population-based prevalence projection and provide long-term future estimations of PsA patients in Germany until 2050, using the illness–death model and based on historical data. We analyzed the national statutory health insurance data of 65 million population in the German Institute for Medical Documentation and Information between January 2009 and December 2012. We constructed an estimation of the PsA burden among the German population using the relevant epidemiological parameters to project the numbers of patients with PsA in Germany until 2050 under five possible scenarios by varying the incidence and mortality. The overall conservatively estimated prevalence of PsA in Germany in 2019 was 0.31% (95% CI 0.28–0.36%). Women contribute a higher prevalence than men in all five scenarios. In the assumed scenarios with increased incidence, the prevalence of PsA at 60 years of age could rise from 1% in 2019 to more than 3% in 2050 for both genders, with the increase particularly pronounced for women, reaching around 3.5%. However, in the assumed scenarios with decreasing incidence, the prevalence curve may flatten and begin a decreasing trend from 2035 to 2050 for both genders, achieving a prevalence of less than 1% in 2050. Our research is to generate assumed population-based data on PsA in Germany that can serve as a reference for public health stakeholders to prepare an optional intervention. We would expect worryingly high numbers in the coming decades if preventive strategies are not implemented. In the long term, it will be necessary to implement preventive strategies to identify predictors and treat psoriasis symptoms early in order to delay or even prevent the transition of psoriasis to PsA. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00296-023-05422-2.