Outcome assessment for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients in Singapore and Japan with initial shockable rhythm

BACKGROUND: Singapore and Osaka in Japan have comparable population sizes and prehospital management; however, the frequency of ECPR differs greatly for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with initial shockable rhythm. Given this disparity, we hypothesized that the outcomes among the OHCA patients with initial shockable rhythm in Singapore were different from those in Osaka. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes of OHCA patients with initial shockable rhythm in Singapore compared to the expected outcomes derived from Osaka data using machine learning-based prediction models. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of two OHCA databases: the Singapore PAROS database (SG-PAROS) and the Osaka-CRITICAL database from Osaka, Japan. This study included adult (18–74 years) OHCA patients with initial shockable rhythm. A machine learning-based prediction model was derived and validated using data from the Osaka-CRITICAL database (derivation data 2012–2017, validation data 2018–2019), and applied to the SG-PAROS database (2010–2016 data), to predict the risk-adjusted probability of favorable neurological outcomes. The observed and expected outcomes were compared using the observed–expected ratio (OE ratio) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: From the SG-PAROS database, 1,789 patients were included in the analysis. For OHCA patients who achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) on hospital arrival, the observed favorable neurological outcome was at the same level as expected (OE ratio: 0.905 [95%CI: 0.784–1.036]). On the other hand, for those who had continued cardiac arrest on hospital arrival, the outcomes were lower than expected (shockable rhythm on hospital arrival, OE ratio: 0.369 [95%CI: 0.258–0.499], and nonshockable rhythm, OE ratio: 0.137 [95%CI: 0.065–0.235]). CONCLUSION: This observational study found that the outcomes for patients with initial shockable rhythm but who did not obtain ROSC on hospital arrival in Singapore were lower than expected from Osaka. We hypothesize this is mainly due to differences in the use of ECPR. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-023-04636-x.