A 2-step prediction model for diagnosis of germinomas in the pineal region

BACKGROUND: Germinomas are sensitive to radiation and chemotherapy, and their management distinctly differs from other kinds of pineal region tumors. The aim of this study was to construct a prediction model based on clinical features and preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) manifestations to achieve noninvasive diagnosis of germinomas in pineal region. METHODS: A total of 126 patients with pineal region tumors were enrolled, including 36 germinomas, 53 nongerminomatous germ cell tumors (NGGCTs), and 37 pineal parenchymal tumors (PPTs). They were divided into a training cohort (n = 90) and a validation cohort (n = 36). Features were extracted from clinical records and conventional MR images. Multivariate analysis was performed to screen for independent predictors to differentiate germ cell tumors (GCTs) and PPTs, germinomas, and NGGCTs, respectively. From this, a 2-step nomogram model was established, with model 1 for discriminating GCTs from PPTs and model 2 for identifying germinomas in GCTs. The model was tested in a validation cohort. RESULTS: Both model 1 and model 2 yielded good predictive efficacy, with c-indexes of 0.967 and 0.896 for the diagnosis of GCT and germinoma, respectively. Calibration curve, decision curve, and clinical impact curve analysis further confirmed their predictive accuracy and clinical usefulness. The validation cohort achieved areas under the receiver operating curves of 0.885 and 0.926, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 2-step model in this study can noninvasively differentiate GCTs from PPTs and further identify germinomas, thus holding potential to facilitate treatment decision-making for pineal region tumors.