Determinants of Atrial Fibrillation Progression and Its Influence on Overall Mortality in a Cohort of Patients From South India

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, factors influencing AF progression and their impact on all-cause mortality in South Indian patients remain poorly understood. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving 500 individuals diagnosed with AF. Patient characteristics, including age, sex, and comorbidities, were collected. Left atrial diameter (LAD) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were measured via echocardiography. Participants were followed for a median of three years. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to analyze factors associated with AF progression and all-cause mortality. Results: Of the participants, 60% exhibited persistent or permanent AF, and 40% had paroxysmal AF. The mean age was 63.5 ± 10.8 years, with 60% males and 40% females. Common comorbidities included hypertension (80%), diabetes (50%), and coronary artery disease (35%). The mean LAD was 42.3 ± 5.6 mm and the mean LVEF was 52.7 ± 6.8%; left atrial appendage thrombus (LAAT) was present in 15% of patients. Over the follow-up, 24% experienced all-cause mortality. Multivariate analysis revealed age, hypertension, diabetes, LAD, and LVEF as significant predictors of AF progression (p<0.05). Patients with persistent or permanent AF exhibited a higher risk of progression than those with paroxysmal AF (hazard ratio=1.74, 95% CI, 1.23-2.45). Age, hypertension, heart failure, and AF progression were independent predictors of all-cause mortality (p<0.05). Conclusion: Our study identified age, hypertension, diabetes, LAD, and LVEF as independent predictors of AF progression. Additionally, age, hypertension, heart failure, and AF progression independently predicted all-cause mortality. These findings underscore the need for early detection and management of AF progression and comorbidities to improve outcomes in South Indian AF patients. Prospective studies with larger cohorts are warranted to confirm these findings and explore interventions to prevent AF progression and enhance patient outcomes.