Medical Diagnosis Reimagined as a Process of Bayesian Reasoning and Elimination

This article delves into the interface between the art of medical diagnosis and the mathematical foundations of probability, the Bayes theorem. In a healthcare ecosystem witnessing an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven transformation, understanding the convergence becomes crucial for physicians. Contrary to viewing AI as a mysterious “black box,” we demonstrate how every diagnostic decision by a medical practitioner is, in essence, Bayesian reasoning in action. The Bayes theorem is a mathematical translation of systematically updating our belief: it quantifies how an additional piece of information updates our prior belief in something. Using a clinical scenario of Kartagener syndrome, we showcase the parallels between a physician’s evolving diagnostic thought process and the mathematical updating of prior beliefs with new evidence. By reimagining medical diagnosis through the lens of Bayes, this paper aims to demystify AI, accentuating its potential role as an enhancer of clinical acumen rather than a replacement. The ultimate vision presented is one of harmony, where AI serves as a symbiotic partner to physicians, with the shared goal of holistic patient care.