Predicting timely transfer to adult care in a cohort of autistic adolescents and young adults

BACKGROUND: The transition from pediatric to adult care is a challenge for autistic adolescents and young adults. Data on patient features associated with timely transfer between pediatric and adult health care are limited. Our objective was to describe the patient features associated with timely transfer to adult health care (defined as </ = 6 months between first adult visit and most recent prior pediatric visit) among a cohort of autistic adolescents and young adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed pediatric and adult electronic medical record data from a cohort of adolescents and young adults who established with a primary-care based program for autistic adolescents and young adults after they transferred from a single children’s hospital. Using forward feature selection and logistic regression, we selected an optimal subset of patient characteristics or features via five repetitions of five-fold cross validation over varying time-frames prior to the first adult visit to identify patient features associated with a timely transfer to adult health care. A total of 224 autistic adolescents and young adults were included. Across all models, total outpatient encounters and total encounters, which are very correlated (r = 0.997), were selected as the first variable in 91.2% the models. These variables predicted timely transfer well, with an area under the receiver-operator curve ranging from 0.81 to 0.88. CONCLUSIONS: Total outpatient encounters and total encounters in pediatric care showed good ability to predict timely transfer to adult health care in a population of autistic adolescents and young adults.