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Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic
The urgency to develop vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the acceleration of clinical trials. Specifically, a broad spectrum of efficacy levels has been reported for various vaccines based on phase III cohort studies. Our study demonstrates that conducting large cohort phase III...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10501570/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37708163 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290652 |
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author | Scala, Antonio Cavallo, Pierpaolo |
author_facet | Scala, Antonio Cavallo, Pierpaolo |
author_sort | Scala, Antonio |
collection | PubMed |
description | The urgency to develop vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the acceleration of clinical trials. Specifically, a broad spectrum of efficacy levels has been reported for various vaccines based on phase III cohort studies. Our study demonstrates that conducting large cohort phase III clinical trials during the peak of an epidemic leads to a significant underestimation of vaccine efficacy, even in the absence of confounding factors. Furthermore, we find that this underestimation increases with the proportion of infectious individuals in the population during the experiment and the severity of the epidemic, as measured by its basic reproduction number. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10501570 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-105015702023-09-15 Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic Scala, Antonio Cavallo, Pierpaolo PLoS One Research Article The urgency to develop vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the acceleration of clinical trials. Specifically, a broad spectrum of efficacy levels has been reported for various vaccines based on phase III cohort studies. Our study demonstrates that conducting large cohort phase III clinical trials during the peak of an epidemic leads to a significant underestimation of vaccine efficacy, even in the absence of confounding factors. Furthermore, we find that this underestimation increases with the proportion of infectious individuals in the population during the experiment and the severity of the epidemic, as measured by its basic reproduction number. Public Library of Science 2023-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10501570/ /pubmed/37708163 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290652 Text en © 2023 Scala, Cavallo https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Scala, Antonio Cavallo, Pierpaolo Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic |
title | Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic |
title_full | Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic |
title_fullStr | Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed | Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic |
title_short | Measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic |
title_sort | measuring the efficacy of a vaccine during an epidemic |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10501570/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37708163 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0290652 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT scalaantonio measuringtheefficacyofavaccineduringanepidemic AT cavallopierpaolo measuringtheefficacyofavaccineduringanepidemic |