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Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models

Over the years, numerous modelling studies have been proposed to estimate HIV incidence. As a result, this study aimed to evaluate two alternative methods for predicting HIV incidence in Zimbabwe between 2005 and 2015. We estimated HIV incidence from seroprevalence data using the catalytic and Farri...

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Autores principales: Birri Makota, Rutendo Beauty, Musenge, Eustasius
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10501625/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37708116
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001717
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author Birri Makota, Rutendo Beauty
Musenge, Eustasius
author_facet Birri Makota, Rutendo Beauty
Musenge, Eustasius
author_sort Birri Makota, Rutendo Beauty
collection PubMed
description Over the years, numerous modelling studies have been proposed to estimate HIV incidence. As a result, this study aimed to evaluate two alternative methods for predicting HIV incidence in Zimbabwe between 2005 and 2015. We estimated HIV incidence from seroprevalence data using the catalytic and Farrington-2-parameter models. Data were obtained from 2005–06, 2010–11, and 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS). These models were validated at the micro and macro-level using community-based cohort incidence and empirical estimates from UNAIDS EPP/SPECTRUM, respectively. The HIV incidence for the catalytic model was 0.32% (CI: 0.28%, 0.36%), 0.36% (CI: 0.33%, 0.39%), and 0.28% (CI: 0.26%, 0.30%), for the years 2005–06, 2010–11, and 2015, respectively. The HIV incidence for the Farrington model was 0.21% (CI: 0.16%, 0.26%), 0.22% (CI: 0.20%, 0.25%), and 0.19% (CI: 0.16%, 0.22%), for the years 2005–06, 2010–11, and 2015, respectively. According to these findings, the catalytic model estimated a higher HIV incidence rate than the Farrington model. Compared to cohort estimates, the estimates were within the observed 95% confidence interval, with 88% and 75% agreement for the catalytic and Farrington models, respectively. The limits of agreement observed in the Bland-Altman plot were narrow for all plots, indicating that our model estimates were comparable to cohort estimates. Compared to UNAIDS estimates, the catalytic model predicted a progressive increase in HIV incidence for males throughout all survey years. Without a doubt, HIV incidence declined with each subsequent survey year for all models. To improve programmatic and policy decisions in the national HIV response, we recommend the triangulation of multiple methods for incidence estimation and interpretation of results. Multiple estimating approaches should be considered to reduce uncertainty in the estimations from various models.
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spelling pubmed-105016252023-09-15 Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models Birri Makota, Rutendo Beauty Musenge, Eustasius PLOS Glob Public Health Research Article Over the years, numerous modelling studies have been proposed to estimate HIV incidence. As a result, this study aimed to evaluate two alternative methods for predicting HIV incidence in Zimbabwe between 2005 and 2015. We estimated HIV incidence from seroprevalence data using the catalytic and Farrington-2-parameter models. Data were obtained from 2005–06, 2010–11, and 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic Health Survey (ZDHS). These models were validated at the micro and macro-level using community-based cohort incidence and empirical estimates from UNAIDS EPP/SPECTRUM, respectively. The HIV incidence for the catalytic model was 0.32% (CI: 0.28%, 0.36%), 0.36% (CI: 0.33%, 0.39%), and 0.28% (CI: 0.26%, 0.30%), for the years 2005–06, 2010–11, and 2015, respectively. The HIV incidence for the Farrington model was 0.21% (CI: 0.16%, 0.26%), 0.22% (CI: 0.20%, 0.25%), and 0.19% (CI: 0.16%, 0.22%), for the years 2005–06, 2010–11, and 2015, respectively. According to these findings, the catalytic model estimated a higher HIV incidence rate than the Farrington model. Compared to cohort estimates, the estimates were within the observed 95% confidence interval, with 88% and 75% agreement for the catalytic and Farrington models, respectively. The limits of agreement observed in the Bland-Altman plot were narrow for all plots, indicating that our model estimates were comparable to cohort estimates. Compared to UNAIDS estimates, the catalytic model predicted a progressive increase in HIV incidence for males throughout all survey years. Without a doubt, HIV incidence declined with each subsequent survey year for all models. To improve programmatic and policy decisions in the national HIV response, we recommend the triangulation of multiple methods for incidence estimation and interpretation of results. Multiple estimating approaches should be considered to reduce uncertainty in the estimations from various models. Public Library of Science 2023-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC10501625/ /pubmed/37708116 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001717 Text en © 2023 Birri Makota, Musenge https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Birri Makota, Rutendo Beauty
Musenge, Eustasius
Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models
title Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models
title_full Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models
title_fullStr Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models
title_full_unstemmed Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models
title_short Estimating HIV incidence over a decade in Zimbabwe: A comparison of the catalytic and Farrington models
title_sort estimating hiv incidence over a decade in zimbabwe: a comparison of the catalytic and farrington models
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10501625/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37708116
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001717
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