Prediction models for the recipients’ ideal perioperative estimated glomerular filtration rates for predicting graft survival after adult living-donor kidney transplantation

INTRODUCTION: The impact of the perioperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on graft survival in kidney transplant recipients is yet to be evaluated. In this study, we developed prediction models for the ideal perioperative eGFRs in recipients. METHODS: We evaluated the impact of perioperative predicted ideal and actual eGFRs on graft survival by including 1,174 consecutive adult patients who underwent living-donor kidney transplantation (LDKT) between January 2008 and December 2020. Prediction models for the ideal perioperative eGFR were developed for 676 recipients who were randomly assigned to the training and validation sets (ratio: 7:3). The prediction models for the ideal best eGFR within 3 weeks and those at 1, 2, and 3 weeks after LDKT in 474 recipients were developed using 10-fold validation and stepwise multiple regression model analyzes. The developed prediction models were validated in 202 recipients. Finally, the impact of perioperative predicted ideal eGFRs/actual eGFRs on graft survival was investigated using Fine–Gray regression analysis. RESULTS: The correlation coefficients of the predicted ideal best eGFR within 3 weeks and the predicted ideal eGFRs at 1, 2, and 3 weeks after LDKT were 0.651, 0.600, 0.598, and 0.617, respectively. Multivariate analyzes for graft loss demonstrated significant differences in the predicted ideal best eGFR/actual best eGFR within 3 weeks and the predicted ideal eGFRs/actual eGFRs at 1, 2, and 3 weeks after LDKT. DISCUSSION: The predicted ideal best eGFR/actual best eGFR within 3 weeks and the predicted ideal eGFRs/actual eGFRs at 1, 2, and 3 weeks after LDKT were independent prognostic factors for graft loss. Therefore, the perioperative predicted ideal eGFR/actual eGFR may be useful for predicting graft survival after adult LDKT.