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Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients

INTRODUCTION: Calf muscular vein thrombosis (CMVT) is a common complication in geriatric hip fracture patients. Despite its high incidence, prior research on the topic is limited. The occurrence of CMVT in patients will prolong the preoperative waiting time and even lead to serious thromboembolic ev...

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Autores principales: Jiang, Jiabao, Xing, Fei, Luo, Rong, Chen, Zhao, Liu, Hao, Xiang, Zhou, Duan, Xin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10502724/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37720507
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1236451
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author Jiang, Jiabao
Xing, Fei
Luo, Rong
Chen, Zhao
Liu, Hao
Xiang, Zhou
Duan, Xin
author_facet Jiang, Jiabao
Xing, Fei
Luo, Rong
Chen, Zhao
Liu, Hao
Xiang, Zhou
Duan, Xin
author_sort Jiang, Jiabao
collection PubMed
description INTRODUCTION: Calf muscular vein thrombosis (CMVT) is a common complication in geriatric hip fracture patients. Despite its high incidence, prior research on the topic is limited. The occurrence of CMVT in patients will prolong the preoperative waiting time and even lead to serious thromboembolic events, which can be detrimental to the patient’s prognosis. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factors for preoperative CMVT in geriatric hip fracture patients and construct a nomogram model to predict the risk of preoperative CMVT in patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Geriatric hip fracture patients who underwent surgery between January 2019 and January 2022 were included. The patients were categorized into two groups depending on whether they had preoperative CMVT, confirmed through Color Doppler ultrasound or venography examination. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze demographic characteristics, medical history, comorbidities, and laboratory tests. A nomogram was constructed to predict preoperative CMVT in geriatric hip fracture patients based on the results of the multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Three hundred and eighty-eight geriatric hip fracture patients, including one hundred and thirty-four patients with CMVT and two hundred and fifty-four patients without CMVT, were ultimately included in our study. After multivariable logistic regression analysis, the time from injury to admission, smoking history, serum albumin levels, and D-dimer levels was identified as independent risk factors and was entered into a nomogram model. The nomogram showed robust discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805. The calibration curve showed strong agreement between the CMVT probabilities predicted by the nomogram and the actual probabilities. The decision curve analysis illustrates the excellent clinical utility of the model. CONCLUSION: We have constructed a new nomogram prediction model that can effectively predict the risk of preoperative CMVT in geriatric hip fracture patients based on their medical history and blood test results. This model can help clinicians make individualized predictions of CMVT that are tailored to each patient’s unique circumstances.
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spelling pubmed-105027242023-09-16 Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients Jiang, Jiabao Xing, Fei Luo, Rong Chen, Zhao Liu, Hao Xiang, Zhou Duan, Xin Front Med (Lausanne) Medicine INTRODUCTION: Calf muscular vein thrombosis (CMVT) is a common complication in geriatric hip fracture patients. Despite its high incidence, prior research on the topic is limited. The occurrence of CMVT in patients will prolong the preoperative waiting time and even lead to serious thromboembolic events, which can be detrimental to the patient’s prognosis. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factors for preoperative CMVT in geriatric hip fracture patients and construct a nomogram model to predict the risk of preoperative CMVT in patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Geriatric hip fracture patients who underwent surgery between January 2019 and January 2022 were included. The patients were categorized into two groups depending on whether they had preoperative CMVT, confirmed through Color Doppler ultrasound or venography examination. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to analyze demographic characteristics, medical history, comorbidities, and laboratory tests. A nomogram was constructed to predict preoperative CMVT in geriatric hip fracture patients based on the results of the multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Three hundred and eighty-eight geriatric hip fracture patients, including one hundred and thirty-four patients with CMVT and two hundred and fifty-four patients without CMVT, were ultimately included in our study. After multivariable logistic regression analysis, the time from injury to admission, smoking history, serum albumin levels, and D-dimer levels was identified as independent risk factors and was entered into a nomogram model. The nomogram showed robust discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.805. The calibration curve showed strong agreement between the CMVT probabilities predicted by the nomogram and the actual probabilities. The decision curve analysis illustrates the excellent clinical utility of the model. CONCLUSION: We have constructed a new nomogram prediction model that can effectively predict the risk of preoperative CMVT in geriatric hip fracture patients based on their medical history and blood test results. This model can help clinicians make individualized predictions of CMVT that are tailored to each patient’s unique circumstances. Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-09-01 /pmc/articles/PMC10502724/ /pubmed/37720507 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1236451 Text en Copyright © 2023 Jiang, Xing, Luo, Chen, Liu, Xiang and Duan. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Medicine
Jiang, Jiabao
Xing, Fei
Luo, Rong
Chen, Zhao
Liu, Hao
Xiang, Zhou
Duan, Xin
Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients
title Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients
title_full Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients
title_fullStr Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients
title_full_unstemmed Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients
title_short Risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients
title_sort risk factors and prediction model of nomogram for preoperative calf muscle vein thrombosis in geriatric hip fracture patients
topic Medicine
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10502724/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37720507
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2023.1236451
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