Identification and verification of plasma protein biomarkers that accurately identify an ectopic pregnancy

BACKGROUND: Differentiating between a normal intrauterine pregnancy (IUP) and abnormal conditions including early pregnancy loss (EPL) or ectopic pregnancy (EP) is a major clinical challenge in early pregnancy. Currently, serial β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and progesterone are the most commonly used plasma biomarkers for evaluating pregnancy prognosis when ultrasound is inconclusive. However, neither biomarker can predict an EP with sufficient and reproducible accuracy. Hence, identification of new plasma biomarkers that can accurately diagnose EP would have great clinical value. METHODS: Plasma was collected from a discovery cohort of 48 consenting women having an IUP, EPL, or EP. Samples were analyzed by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) followed by a label-free proteomics analysis to identify significant changes between pregnancy outcomes. A panel of 14 candidate biomarkers were then verified in an independent cohort of 74 women using absolute quantitation by targeted parallel reaction monitoring mass spectrometry (PRM-MS) which provided the capacity to distinguish between closely related protein isoforms. Logistic regression and Lasso feature selection were used to evaluate the performance of individual biomarkers and panels of multiple biomarkers to predict EP. RESULTS: A total of 1391 proteins were identified in an unbiased plasma proteome discovery. A number of significant changes (FDR ≤ 5%) were identified when comparing EP vs. non-EP (IUP + EPL). Next, 14 candidate biomarkers (ADAM12, CGA, CGB, ISM2, NOTUM, PAEP, PAPPA, PSG1, PSG2, PSG3, PSG9, PSG11, PSG6/9, and PSG8/1) were verified as being significantly different between EP and non-EP in an independent cohort (FDR ≤ 5%). Using logistic regression models, a risk score for EP was calculated for each subject, and four multiple biomarker logistic models were identified that performed similarly and had higher AUCs than models with single predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, four multivariable logistic models were identified that had significantly better prediction of having EP than those logistic models with single biomarkers. Model 4 (NOTUM, PAEP, PAPPA, ADAM12) had the highest AUC (0.987) and accuracy (96%). However, because the models are statistically similar, all markers in the four models and other highly correlated markers should be considered in further validation studies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12014-023-09425-w.