A comprehensive evaluation of regional carbon emission based on the composite model in China: a case study of Huaibei city (China)

Formulating carbon emission reduction at the regional level is key to achieving the “dual carbon” strategy. A composite model is used to analyze the carbon emission reduction in Huaibei City based on the data from 2012 to 2021 and predict its change trend of carbon emission from 2022 to 2030. The study finds that: (1) the effects of observed factors on carbon emission in Huaibei City are complicated. Among them, the secondary industry has the greatest impact on carbon emission (weight is 0.32), and it is the key constraint factor of carbon emission. Population has the smallest impact on carbon emission (weight is 0.13), but its obstacle effect is significant. (2) The observed factors have a significant positive effect on the “dual carbon” strategy, but the improvement pressure is high. Among them, the conditions of all indicators have been improved except population, and it is found that each indicator can reach the level I before 2030, the “dual carbon” strategy can be achieved. This study deepens the understanding of regional carbon emission in China and the following conclusions are formed: (1) Grasping the carbon reduction effect of urbanization on the population to consolidate the new model of low-carbon development. (2) Identifying the key areas of carbon emission reduction to build a low-carbon emission oriented industrial system. (3) Strengthening the technological innovation of carbon emission reduction to achieve the strategic goal of “dual-carbon”.