Minority-group incubators and majority-group reservoirs support the diffusion of climate change adaptations

Successful climate change adaptation depends on the spread and maintenance of adaptive behaviours. Current theory suggests that the heterogeneity of metapopulation structure can help adaptations diffuse throughout a population. In this paper, we develop an agent-based model of the spread of adaptations in populations with minority–majority metapopulation structure, where subpopulations learn more or less frequently from their own group compared to the other group. In our simulations, minority–majority-structured populations with moderate degrees of in-group preference better spread and maintained an adaptation compared to populations with more equal-sized groups and weak homophily. Minority groups act as incubators for an adaptation, while majority groups act as reservoirs for an adaptation once it has spread widely. This means that adaptations diffuse throughout populations better when minority groups start out knowing an adaptation, as Indigenous populations often do, while cohesion among majority groups further promotes adaptation diffusion. Our work advances the goal of this theme issue by developing new theoretical insights and demonstrating the utility of cultural evolutionary theory and methods as important tools in the nascent science of culture that climate change adaptation needs. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture’.