Cargando…

Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects

Higher levels of economic activity are often accompanied by higher energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80% of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus to climate change. Under the assump...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Segovia-Martin, Jose, Creutzig, Felix, Winters, James
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10505854/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37718604
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0405
_version_ 1785106994049318912
author Segovia-Martin, Jose
Creutzig, Felix
Winters, James
author_facet Segovia-Martin, Jose
Creutzig, Felix
Winters, James
author_sort Segovia-Martin, Jose
collection PubMed
description Higher levels of economic activity are often accompanied by higher energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80% of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus to climate change. Under the assumption of sufficiently elastic demand, this reality of global economic development based on permanent growth of economic activity, brings into play the Jevons Paradox, which hypothesises that increases in the efficiency of resource use leads to increases in resource consumption. Previous research on the rebound effects has limitations, including a lack of studies on the connection between reinforcement learning and environmental consequences. This paper develops a mathematical model and computer simulator to study the effects of micro-level exploration–exploitation strategies on efficiency, consumption and sustainability, considering different levels of direct and indirect rebound effects. Our model shows how optimal exploration–exploitation strategies for increasing efficiency can lead to unsustainable development patterns if they are not accompanied by demand reduction measures, which are essential for mitigating climate change. Moreover, our paper speaks to the broader issue of efficiency traps by highlighting how indirect rebound effects not only affect primary energy (PE) consumption and GHG emissions, but also resource consumption in other domains. By linking these issues together, our study sheds light on the complexities and interdependencies involved in achieving sustainable development goals. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture’.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10505854
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher The Royal Society
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-105058542023-09-19 Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects Segovia-Martin, Jose Creutzig, Felix Winters, James Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Part III: Macro Higher levels of economic activity are often accompanied by higher energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80% of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely linked to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus to climate change. Under the assumption of sufficiently elastic demand, this reality of global economic development based on permanent growth of economic activity, brings into play the Jevons Paradox, which hypothesises that increases in the efficiency of resource use leads to increases in resource consumption. Previous research on the rebound effects has limitations, including a lack of studies on the connection between reinforcement learning and environmental consequences. This paper develops a mathematical model and computer simulator to study the effects of micro-level exploration–exploitation strategies on efficiency, consumption and sustainability, considering different levels of direct and indirect rebound effects. Our model shows how optimal exploration–exploitation strategies for increasing efficiency can lead to unsustainable development patterns if they are not accompanied by demand reduction measures, which are essential for mitigating climate change. Moreover, our paper speaks to the broader issue of efficiency traps by highlighting how indirect rebound effects not only affect primary energy (PE) consumption and GHG emissions, but also resource consumption in other domains. By linking these issues together, our study sheds light on the complexities and interdependencies involved in achieving sustainable development goals. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture’. The Royal Society 2023-11-06 2023-09-18 /pmc/articles/PMC10505854/ /pubmed/37718604 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0405 Text en © 2023 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Part III: Macro
Segovia-Martin, Jose
Creutzig, Felix
Winters, James
Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects
title Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects
title_full Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects
title_fullStr Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects
title_full_unstemmed Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects
title_short Efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects
title_sort efficiency traps beyond the climate crisis: exploration–exploitation trade-offs and rebound effects
topic Part III: Macro
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10505854/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37718604
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0405
work_keys_str_mv AT segoviamartinjose efficiencytrapsbeyondtheclimatecrisisexplorationexploitationtradeoffsandreboundeffects
AT creutzigfelix efficiencytrapsbeyondtheclimatecrisisexplorationexploitationtradeoffsandreboundeffects
AT wintersjames efficiencytrapsbeyondtheclimatecrisisexplorationexploitationtradeoffsandreboundeffects