Reduction rate of monoclonal protein as a useful prognostic factor in standard-risk group of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a common hematologic malignancy that originates from a malignant clone of plasma cells. Solitary plasmacytoma, history of diabetes, and platelet count are considered as prognostic factors for MM. But some patients are still associated with much worse outcomes without any prognostic predictors. This study aimed to observe the reduction rate of monoclonal protein (M protein) after the first and fourth chemotherapy cycles, which is considered as a new prognostic factor for progression-free survival (PFS) in standard-risk group of newly diagnosed MM patients. AIM: To investigate the reduction rate of M protein after first and fourth cycle chemotherapy as a useful prognostic factor. METHODS: A total of 316 patients diagnosed with MM for the first time between 2010 and 2019 at the Lishui Municipal Central Hospital were included. All patients were diagnosed according to the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) 2020.V1 diagnostic criteria. The risk assessment was performed by the Mayo Stratification for Macroglobulinemia and Risk-Adapted Therapy guidelines. After diagnosis, 164 patients were evaluated and underwent treatment with four to eight courses of continuous induction chemotherapy. The patients with no response after induction treatment were administered additional therapy following the NCCN 2020.V1 criteria. The following baseline data from the patients were collected: Gender, age at diagnosis, Durie-Salmon stage, glutamic-pyruvic transaminase, glutamic-oxaloacetic transaminase, catabolite activator protein, albumin/globulin ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, translocation (t)(6;14), t(11;14), maintenance regimen, total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride, and phosphorous. All baseline data and the reduction rate of M protein after each chemotherapy cycle from the first to fourth were assessed by univariate analysis. The factors influencing the overall survival and PFS were then assessed by multivariate analysis. We found the first cycle (C1) reduction rate and the fourth cycle (C4) reduction rate as predictors of PFS. Then, PFS was compared between patients with a C1 reduction rate of M protein of ≥ 25% vs < 25% and ≥ 50% vs < 50%, and between patients with a C4 reduction rate of ≥ 25% vs < 25%, ≥ 50% vs < 50%, and ≥ 75% vs < 75%. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.059, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.033-1.085, P ≤ 0.001], International Staging System stage (HR: 2.136, 95%CI: 1.500-3.041, P ≤ 0.001), autotransplantion (HR: 0.201, 95%CI: 0.069-0.583, P = 0.019), TC (HR: 0.689, 95%CI: 0.533-0.891, P = 0.019), C1 reduction rate (HR: 0474, 95%CI: 0.293-0.767, P = 0.019), and C4 reduction rate (HR: 0.254, 95%CI: 0.139-0.463, P = 0.019) as predictors of PFS. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the log-rank tests revealed that a higher reduction rate of M protein after first cycle (≥ 50%) and fourth cycle (≥ 75%) chemotherapy was associated with a longer PFS than the lower one. CONCLUSION: Higher reduction rates of M protein after the first and fourth chemotherapy cycles can act as advantageous prognostic factors for PFS in standard-risk group of MM patients during initial diagnosis.