Value of the short physical performance battery (SPPB) in predicting fall and fall-induced injury among old Chinese adults

BACKGROUND: The short physical performance battery (SPPB) is an easy-to-use tool for fall risk prediction, but its predictive value for falls and fall-induced injuries among community dwellers has not been examined through a large-sample longitudinal study. METHODS: We analyzed five-round follow-up data (2, 3, 4, 5, 7 years) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) (2011–2018). Data concerning falls and fall-induced injuries during multi-round follow-ups were collected through participant self-report. The Cochran-Armitage trend test examined trends in fall incidence rate across SPPB performance levels. Multivariable logistic regression and negative binomial regression models examined associations between SPPB performance and subsequent fall and fall-induced injury. The goodness-of-fit and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used together to quantify the value of the SPPB in predicting fall and fall-induced injury among community-dwelling older adults. RESULTS: The CHARLS study included 9279, 6153, 4142, 4148, and 3583 eligible adults aged 60 years and older in the five included follow-up time periods. SPPB performance was associated with fall and fall-induced injury in two and three of the five follow-up time periods, respectively (P < 0.05). The goodness-of-fit for all predictive models was poor, with both Cox-Snell R(2) and Nagelkerke R(2) under 0.10 and AUCs of 0.53–0.57 when using only SPPB as a predictor and with both Cox-Snell R(2) and Nagelkerke R(2) lower than 0.12 and AUCs of 0.61–0.67 when using SPPB, demographic variables, and self-reported health conditions as predictors together. Sex and age-specific analyses displayed highly similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Neither use of SPPB alone nor SPPB together with demographic variables and self-reported health conditions appears to offer good predictive performance for falls or fall-induced injuries among community-dwelling older Chinese adults. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-023-04290-6.