Development and validation of a non-invasive model for predicting significant fibrosis based on patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease in the United States

BACKGROUND: Liver fibrosis is closely related to abnormal liver function and liver cancer. Accurate noninvasive assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance for preventing disease progression and treatment decisions. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a non-invasive predictive model for the asses`sment of significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS: Information on all participants for 2017-2018 was extracted from the NHANES database. The eligible patients with significant fibrosis (n=123) and non-significant fibrosis (n=898) were selected to form the original dataset. Variable selection was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model. The utility of the model is assessed in terms of its discrimination, calibration and clinical usability. Bootstrap-resampling internal validation was used to measure the accuracy of the prediction model. RESULTS: This study established a new model consisting of 9 common clinical indicators and developed an online calculator to show the model. Compared with the previously proposed liver fibrosis scoring system, this model showed the best discrimination and predictive performance in the training cohort (0.812,95%CI 0.769-0.855) and the validation cohort (0.805,95%CI 0.762-0.847), with the highest area under curve. Specificity(0.823), sensitivity(0.699), positive likelihood ratio(3.949) and negative likelihood ratio(0.366) were equally excellent. The calibration plot of the predicted probability and the actual occurrence probability of significant fibrosis shows excellent consistency, indicating that the model calibration is outstanding. Combined with decision curve analysis, this model has a great benefit in the range of 0.1-0.8 threshold probability, and has a good application value for the diagnosis of clinical significant fibrosis. CONCLUSION: This study proposes a new non-invasive diagnostic model that combines clinical indicators to provide an accurate and convenient individualized diagnosis of significant fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.