Evaluation of agricultural and rural pollution under environmental measures in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

In this study, material flow and spatial analysis methods were used to evaluate and predict the spatial–temporal pattern evolution of agricultural and rural nitrogen (N) flow in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China from 1949 to 2050 and to analyze agricultural and rural pollution control by environmental measures. The results showed that since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the crop harvest in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has shown an overall upward trend, and the increase in the period from 1979 to 1997 was the fastest, with an average annual increase rate of 3.8%. Since the reform and opening up, N loss (storage) increased from 50.97 × 10(8) kgN in 1978 to 140.15 × 10(8) kgN in 2014, a 2.75-fold increase. In 2015, China began to implement measures to prevent and control agricultural and rural pollution, and N loss (storage) decreased yearly. In 2019, the N loss (storage) decreased by 18.22% compared with that in 2015, but it was still high. Each year, 113.44 × 10(8) kgN was still lost to the atmosphere, water and soil, which was 1.53 times the amount of N harvested with crops. The N loss rate was as high as 60%. Before 2014, N discharge into surface water from agricultural and rural areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased annually, especially after 1978, with an average growth rate of 4.76%, leading to severe nonpoint source pollution. With the implementation of the pollution control policy, the N lost to surface water began to show a downward trend in 2015, but it was still 2.17 times higher than the environmental risk threshold in 2019. According to the prediction, under the scenarios of the business-as-usual, fertilizer reduction, engineering and rural improvement patterns, the N emissions from the system to surface water in 2050 are expected to be reduced by 25.76%, 45.5%, 30% and 30%, respectively, compared with those in 2019, but will still be higher than the environmental risk threshold. Under the integrated pattern, the N emissions to surface water are reduced to 4.32 × 10(8) kgN in 2050, which is lower than the environmental risk threshold and can achieve the goal of nonpoint source pollution control. A single environmental measure cannot effectively control nonpoint source pollution. It is necessary to promote an integrated pattern to achieve green and sustainable development of agriculture in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.