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Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa
Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Owing to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing and stigmas, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment of the true number of cas...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Royal Society
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10509578/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37736525 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230316 |
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author | Han, Qing Bragazzi, Nicola Asgary, Ali Orbinski, James Wu, Jianhong Kong, Jude Dzevela |
author_facet | Han, Qing Bragazzi, Nicola Asgary, Ali Orbinski, James Wu, Jianhong Kong, Jude Dzevela |
author_sort | Han, Qing |
collection | PubMed |
description | Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Owing to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing and stigmas, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment of the true number of cases, especially at the beginning of the novel epidemic. We developed a compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early epidemics in 54 African countries. Data on the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to fit the model for the time period with no or little massive national interventions yet in each country. We estimated that the mean basic reproduction number is 2.02 (s.d. 0.7), with a range between 1.12 (Zambia) and 3.64 (Nigeria). The mean overall report rate was estimated to be 5.37% (s.d. 5.71%), with the highest 30.41% in Libya and the lowest 0.02% in São Tomé and Príncipe. An average of 5.46% (s.d. 6.4%) of all infected cases were severe cases and 66.74% (s.d. 17.28%) were asymptomatic ones. The estimated low reporting rates in Africa suggested a clear need for improved reporting and surveillance systems in these countries. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10509578 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | The Royal Society |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-105095782023-09-21 Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa Han, Qing Bragazzi, Nicola Asgary, Ali Orbinski, James Wu, Jianhong Kong, Jude Dzevela R Soc Open Sci Mathematics Country reported case counts suggested a slow spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. Owing to inadequate public awareness, unestablished monitoring practices, limited testing and stigmas, there might exist extensive under-ascertainment of the true number of cases, especially at the beginning of the novel epidemic. We developed a compartmentalized epidemiological model to track the early epidemics in 54 African countries. Data on the reported cumulative number of cases and daily confirmed cases were used to fit the model for the time period with no or little massive national interventions yet in each country. We estimated that the mean basic reproduction number is 2.02 (s.d. 0.7), with a range between 1.12 (Zambia) and 3.64 (Nigeria). The mean overall report rate was estimated to be 5.37% (s.d. 5.71%), with the highest 30.41% in Libya and the lowest 0.02% in São Tomé and Príncipe. An average of 5.46% (s.d. 6.4%) of all infected cases were severe cases and 66.74% (s.d. 17.28%) were asymptomatic ones. The estimated low reporting rates in Africa suggested a clear need for improved reporting and surveillance systems in these countries. The Royal Society 2023-09-20 /pmc/articles/PMC10509578/ /pubmed/37736525 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230316 Text en © 2023 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Mathematics Han, Qing Bragazzi, Nicola Asgary, Ali Orbinski, James Wu, Jianhong Kong, Jude Dzevela Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa |
title | Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa |
title_full | Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa |
title_fullStr | Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa |
title_short | Estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of COVID-19 across Africa |
title_sort | estimation of epidemiological parameters and ascertainment rate from early transmission of covid-19 across africa |
topic | Mathematics |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10509578/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37736525 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.230316 |
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