Systematic review of prospective studies assessing risk factors to predict anorexia nervosa onset

BACKGROUND: According to case‒control studies, a multitude of factors contribute to the emergence of anorexia nervosa (AN). The present systematic review examines prospective studies specifically designed to evaluate the prediction of AN onset. METHODS: According to the ARMSTAR 2 and PRISMA 2020 checklists, the PubMed, PsycINFO and Cochrane databases were searched. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed with the Downs and Black checklist. RESULTS: Three articles concerning prospective studies of the general population were ultimately included in the review. The methodological quality of these studies was not optimal. Bidirectional amplification effects were observed between risk factors, some of which could have a relative predictive force as low bodyweight or body dissatisfaction. Even if not included according to specified criteria for this systematic review 11 longitudinal studies, with retrospective analysis of AN onset’ prediction, were also discussed. None of these studies asserted the predictive value of particular risk factors as low body weight, anxiety disorders or childhood aggression. CONCLUSIONS: To date there are insufficient established data to propose predictive markers of AN onset for predictive actions in pre-adolescent or adolescent populations. Future work should further evaluate potential risk factors previously identified in case‒control/retrospective studies within larger prospective investigations in preadolescent populations. It is important to clearly distinguish predisposing factors from precipitating factors in subjects at risk of developing AN. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40337-023-00882-0.