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Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species
Modeling of infectious diseases at the livestock-wildlife interface is a unique subset of mathematical modeling with many innate challenges. To ascertain the characteristics of the models used in these scenarios, a scoping review of the scientific literature was conducted. Fifty-six studies qualifie...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10511766/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37745209 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2023.1225446 |
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author | Hayes, Brandon H. Vergne, Timothée Andraud, Mathieu Rose, Nicolas |
author_facet | Hayes, Brandon H. Vergne, Timothée Andraud, Mathieu Rose, Nicolas |
author_sort | Hayes, Brandon H. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Modeling of infectious diseases at the livestock-wildlife interface is a unique subset of mathematical modeling with many innate challenges. To ascertain the characteristics of the models used in these scenarios, a scoping review of the scientific literature was conducted. Fifty-six studies qualified for inclusion. Only 14 diseases at this interface have benefited from the utility of mathematical modeling, despite a far greater number of shared diseases. The most represented species combinations were cattle and badgers (for bovine tuberculosis, 14), and pigs and wild boar [for African (8) and classical (3) swine fever, and foot-and-mouth and disease (1)]. Assessing control strategies was the overwhelming primary research objective (27), with most studies examining control strategies applied to wildlife hosts and the effect on domestic hosts (10) or both wild and domestic hosts (5). In spatially-explicit models, while livestock species can often be represented through explicit and identifiable location data (such as farm, herd, or pasture locations), wildlife locations are often inferred using habitat suitability as a proxy. Though there are innate assumptions that may not be fully accurate when using habitat suitability to represent wildlife presence, especially for wildlife the parsimony principle plays a large role in modeling diseases at this interface, where parameters are difficult to document or require a high level of data for inference. Explaining observed transmission dynamics was another common model objective, though the relative contribution of involved species to epizootic propagation was only ascertained in a few models. More direct evidence of disease spill-over, as can be obtained through genomic approaches based on pathogen sequences, could be a useful complement to further inform such modeling. As computational and programmatic capabilities advance, the resolution of the models and data used in these models will likely be able to increase as well, with a potential goal being the linking of modern complex ecological models with the depth of dynamics responsible for pathogen transmission. Controlling diseases at this interface is a critical step toward improving both livestock and wildlife health, and mechanistic models are becoming increasingly used to explore the strategies needed to confront these diseases. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10511766 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-105117662023-09-22 Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species Hayes, Brandon H. Vergne, Timothée Andraud, Mathieu Rose, Nicolas Front Vet Sci Veterinary Science Modeling of infectious diseases at the livestock-wildlife interface is a unique subset of mathematical modeling with many innate challenges. To ascertain the characteristics of the models used in these scenarios, a scoping review of the scientific literature was conducted. Fifty-six studies qualified for inclusion. Only 14 diseases at this interface have benefited from the utility of mathematical modeling, despite a far greater number of shared diseases. The most represented species combinations were cattle and badgers (for bovine tuberculosis, 14), and pigs and wild boar [for African (8) and classical (3) swine fever, and foot-and-mouth and disease (1)]. Assessing control strategies was the overwhelming primary research objective (27), with most studies examining control strategies applied to wildlife hosts and the effect on domestic hosts (10) or both wild and domestic hosts (5). In spatially-explicit models, while livestock species can often be represented through explicit and identifiable location data (such as farm, herd, or pasture locations), wildlife locations are often inferred using habitat suitability as a proxy. Though there are innate assumptions that may not be fully accurate when using habitat suitability to represent wildlife presence, especially for wildlife the parsimony principle plays a large role in modeling diseases at this interface, where parameters are difficult to document or require a high level of data for inference. Explaining observed transmission dynamics was another common model objective, though the relative contribution of involved species to epizootic propagation was only ascertained in a few models. More direct evidence of disease spill-over, as can be obtained through genomic approaches based on pathogen sequences, could be a useful complement to further inform such modeling. As computational and programmatic capabilities advance, the resolution of the models and data used in these models will likely be able to increase as well, with a potential goal being the linking of modern complex ecological models with the depth of dynamics responsible for pathogen transmission. Controlling diseases at this interface is a critical step toward improving both livestock and wildlife health, and mechanistic models are becoming increasingly used to explore the strategies needed to confront these diseases. Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-09-06 /pmc/articles/PMC10511766/ /pubmed/37745209 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2023.1225446 Text en Copyright © 2023 Hayes, Vergne, Andraud and Rose. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Veterinary Science Hayes, Brandon H. Vergne, Timothée Andraud, Mathieu Rose, Nicolas Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species |
title | Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species |
title_full | Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species |
title_fullStr | Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species |
title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species |
title_short | Mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species |
title_sort | mathematical modeling at the livestock-wildlife interface: scoping review of drivers of disease transmission between species |
topic | Veterinary Science |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10511766/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37745209 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fvets.2023.1225446 |
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