Resilience of hospital and allied infrastructure during pandemic and post pandemic periods for maternal health care of pregnant women and infants in Tamil Nadu, India ‐ A counterfactual analysis

COVID-19 has impacted the healthcare system across the globe. The study will span three pandemic waves in 2020, 2021, and 2022. The goal is to learn how the pandemic affects antenatal care (ANC) and emergency delivery care for pregnant women in Tamil Nadu, India, and how medical services respond. The study employs counterfactual analysis to evaluate the causal impact of the pandemic. A feedforward in combination with a simple auto-regressive neural network (AR-Net) is used to predict the daily number of calls for ambulance services (CAS). Three categories of the daily CAS count between January 2016 and December 2022 are utilised. The total CAS includes all types of medical emergencies; the second group pertains to planned ANC for high-risk pregnant women and the third group comprises CAS from pregnant women for medical emergencies. The second wave’s infection and mortality rates were up to six times higher than the first. The phases in wave-II, post-wave-II, wave-III, and post-wave-III experienced a significant increase in both total IFT (inter-facility transfer) and total non-IFT calls covering all emergencies relative to the counterfactual, as evidenced by reported effect sizes of 1 and a range of 0.65 to 0.85, respectively. This highlights overwhelmed health services. In Tamil Nadu, neither emergency prenatal care nor planned prenatal care was affected by the pandemic. In contrast, the increase in actual emergency-related IFT calls during wave-II, post-wave-II, wave-III, and post-wave-III was 62%, 160%, 141%, and 165%, respectively, relative to the counterfactual. During the same time periods, the mean daily CAS related to prenatal care increased by 47%, 51%, 38%, and 38%, respectively, compared to pre-pandemic levels. The expansion of ambulance services and increased awareness of these services during wave II and the ensuing phases of Covid-19 pandemic have enhanced emergency care delivery for all, including obstetric and neonatal cohorts.