How does digital trade promote and reallocate the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry? Evidence from 30 Chinese provinces, 2011–2020

It is important for China to break the “low-end lock” of the manufacturing value chain worldwide by revealing how digital trade promotes and reallocates the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. Panel data for 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 were employed to measure the digital trade development and export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. Benchmark regression, intermediary effect regression, panel threshold and other models were used to test the promotion and reallocation of digital trade on the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. The findings are as follows: (1) Digital trade promotes the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry, with significant regional heterogeneity (eastern, central and western regions), and the most obvious promotion in technology-intensive manufacturing. (2) Technological innovation and human capital play a reallocation role in the process of digital trade, affecting the technological complexity of manufacturing exports, with mediating effects of 14.19% and 8.61%, respectively. (3) Digital trade promotes and reallocates the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry through industrial structure upgrading, and a nonlinear relationship was found. These results provide empirical support and a decision-making basis for digital trade in promoting the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. The development of digital trade should be encouraged; the differential development of digital trade in the eastern, central, and western regions should be boosted; importance should be attached to the intermediary incentive role of technological innovation and human capital; and the upgrading of the industrial structure should be promoted scientifically.