Added value of CE-CT radiomics to predict high Ki-67 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a computed tomography (CT) model to predict Ki-67 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and to examine the added value of radiomics to clinico-radiological features. METHODS: A total of 208 patients (training set, n = 120; internal test set, n = 51; external validation set, n = 37) with pathologically confirmed HCC who underwent contrast-enhanced CT (CE-CT) within 1 month before surgery were retrospectively included from January 2014 to September 2021. Radiomics features were extracted and selected from three phases of CE-CT images, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) was used to select features, and the rad-score was calculated. CE-CT imaging and clinical features were selected using univariate and multivariate analyses, respectively. Three prediction models, including clinic-radiologic (CR) model, rad-score (R) model, and clinic-radiologic-radiomic (CRR) model, were developed and validated using logistic regression analysis. The performance of different models for predicting Ki-67 expression was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: HCCs with high Ki-67 expression were more likely to have high serum α-fetoprotein levels (P = 0.041, odds ratio [OR] 2.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04–6.21), non-rim arterial phase hyperenhancement (P = 0.001, OR 15.13, 95% CI 2.87–79.76), portal vein tumor thrombus (P = 0.035, OR 3.19, 95% CI: 1.08–9.37), and two-trait predictor of venous invasion (P = 0.026, OR 14.04, 95% CI: 1.39–144.32). The CR model achieved relatively good and stable performance compared with the R model (AUC, 0.805 [95% CI: 0.683–0.926] vs. 0.678 [95% CI: 0.536–0.839], P = 0.211; and 0.805 [95% CI: 0.657–0.953] vs. 0.667 [95% CI: 0.495–0.839], P = 0.135) in the internal and external validation sets. After combining the CR model with the R model, the AUC of the CRR model increased to 0.903 (95% CI: 0.849–0.956) in the training set, which was significantly higher than that of the CR model (P = 0.0148). However, no significant differences were found between the CRR and CR models in the internal and external validation sets (P = 0.264 and P = 0.084, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative models based on clinical and CE-CT imaging features can be used to predict HCC with high Ki-67 expression accurately. However, radiomics cannot provide added value. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12880-023-01069-4.