Predicting the risk of distant metastasis in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer using model based on pre-treatment T2WI-based radiomic features plus postoperative pathological stage

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic value of a model based on pre-treatment T2WI-based radiomic features and postoperative pathological staging in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. METHODS: Radiomic features were derived from T2WI, and a radiomic signature (RS) was established and validated for the prediction of distant metastases (DM). Subsequently, we designed and validated a nomogram model that combined the radiomic signature and postoperative pathological staging for enhanced DM prediction. Performance measures such as the concordance index (C-index) and area under the curve (AUC) were computed to assess the predictive accuracy of the models. RESULTS: A total of 260 patients participated in this study, of whom 197 (75.8%) were male, and the mean age was 57.2 years with a standard deviation of 11.2 years. 15 radiomic features were selected to define the radiomic signature. Patients with a high-risk radiomic signature demonstrated significantly shorter distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in both the development and validation cohorts. A nomogram, incorporating the radiomic signature, pathological T stage, and N stage, achieved an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.60-0.83) in the development cohort and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.73-0.92) in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: A radiomic signature derived from T2WI-based radiomic features can effectively distinguish patients with varying risks of DM. Furthermore, a nomogram integrating the radiomic signature and postoperative pathological stage proves to be a robust predictor of DMFS.