Mutational signature assignment heterogeneity is widespread and can be addressed by ensemble approaches

Single-base substitution (SBS) mutational signatures have become standard practice in cancer genomics. In lieu of de novo signature extraction, reference signature assignment allows users to estimate the activities of pre-established SBS signatures within individual malignancies. Several tools have been developed for this purpose, each with differing methodologies. However, due to a lack of standardization, there may be inter-tool variability in signature assignment. We deeply characterized three assignment strategies and five SBS signature assignment tools. We observed that assignment strategy choice can significantly influence results and interpretations. Despite varying recommendations by tools, Refit performed best by reducing overfitting and maximizing reconstruction of the original mutational spectra. Even after uniform application of Refit, tools varied remarkably in signature assignments both qualitatively (Jaccard index = 0.38–0.83) and quantitatively (Kendall tau-b = 0.18–0.76). This phenomenon was exacerbated for ‘flat’ signatures such as the homologous recombination deficiency signature SBS3. An ensemble approach (EnsembleFit), which leverages output from all five tools, increased SBS3 assignment accuracy in BRCA1/2-deficient breast carcinomas. After generating synthetic mutational profiles for thousands of pan-cancer tumors, EnsembleFit reduced signature activity assignment error 15.9–24.7% on average using Catalogue of Somatic Mutations In Cancer and non-standard reference signature sets. We have also released the EnsembleFit web portal (https://www.ensemblefit.pittlabgenomics.com) for users to generate or download ensemble-based SBS signature assignments using any strategy and combination of tools. Overall, we show that signature assignment heterogeneity across tools and strategies is non-negligible and propose a viable, ensemble solution.