Adjuvant chemotherapy or no adjuvant chemotherapy? A prediction model for the risk stratification of recurrence or metastasis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma combining MRI radiomics with clinical factors

BACKGROUND: Dose adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) should be offered in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients? Different guidelines provided the different recommendations. METHODS: In this retrospective study, a total of 140 patients were enrolled and followed for 3 years, with 24 clinical features being collected. The imaging features on the enhanced-MRI sequence were extracted by using PyRadiomics platform. The pearson correlation coefficient and the random forest was used to filter the features associated with recurrence or metastasis. A clinical-radiomics model (CRM) was constructed by the Cox multivariable analysis in training cohort, and was validated in validation cohort. All patients were divided into high- and low-risk groups through the median Rad-score of the model. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the 3-year recurrence or metastasis free rate (RMFR) of patients with or without AC in high- and low-groups. RESULTS: In total, 960 imaging features were extracted. A CRM was constructed from nine features (seven imaging features and two clinical factors). In the training cohort, the area under curve (AUC) of CRM for 3-year RMFR was 0.872 (P <0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.935 and 0.672, respectively; In the validation cohort, the AUC was 0.864 (P <0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 and 0.75, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curve showed that the 3-year RMFR and 3-year cancer specific survival (CSS) rate in the high-risk group were significantly lower than those in the low-risk group (P <0.001). In the high-risk group, patients who received AC had greater 3-year RMFR than those who did not receive AC (78.6% vs. 48.1%) (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: Considering increasing RMFR, a prediction model for NPC based on two clinical factors and seven imaging features suggested the AC needs to be added to patients in the high-risk group and not in the low-risk group.